Even during the fall peak season, apartment transaction volume in Seoul is predicted to not exceed 3,000 units. This is because the lending interest rate continues to rise and the wait-and-see attitude between buyers and sellers is intensifying.
According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza on the 24th, the number of apartment sales in Seoul last month was 3,269. Even considering that there is still about a week left in the reporting period, it is expected that it will be difficult to exceed 4,000 cases.
The number of apartment sales gradually recovered due to the government’s easing of real estate regulations in January of this year, and reached the 3,000 range in April (3,187 cases). Contrary to predictions that it would continue to increase and recover, it continues to trend sideways in the mid to high 3,000 range, with 3,427 cases in May, 3,848 cases in June, 3,588 cases in July, and 3,845 cases in August. Typically, July and August are classified as off-season in the real estate market. This is because transaction volume decreases compared to other times due to the summer rainy season and vacations.
However, it is not expected that there will be a noticeable recovery스포츠토토 even in September, which is called the peak trading season. This is because the gap in desired prices between buyers and sellers appears to be rarely narrowing. In some regions, as reported transactions are made, sellers are raising their asking prices and buyers are reluctant to pursue purchases as interest rates rise again.
Kim Hyo-seon, senior real estate committee member at NH Nonghyup Bank, said, “There was a transaction cliff last year, but this year, it recovered thanks to special home loans and various deregulations.” “Slightly higher interest rates are being applied. Transactions are centered on those who believe that housing prices are at a low point, so in a situation where demand is more limited than before, financial policies have been strengthened, and waiting demand is turning back to a wait-and-see approach.” did.
Baek Sae-rom, a senior researcher at Real Estate R114, said, “We are practically taking a breather right now. The selling price has risen, but there has been no follow-up buying,” adding, “Even from the buyer’s perspective, there is no active buying trend to buy right away. Loan interest rates are rising again. He analyzed, “The upper end exceeding 7% is also acting as a factor in reluctance to buy, but there are no obvious factors for market improvement.”
As transactions are not taking place, listings are piling up. According to Asil, a real estate big data company, as of the 23rd, apartment listings in Seoul increased by about 4% compared to two months ago (as of August 23). By region, Mapo-gu increased by 17.5%, followed by Seongbuk-gu with 14.5%, Songpa-gu with 13.6%, Gwangjin-gu with 12.7%, and Seodaemun-gu with 11.5%.
Buying sentiment also rose slightly last week, but is hardly catching up with selling sentiment. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the Seoul apartment sales supply and demand index in the third week of October (as of October 16) was 88.7, up 0.3 points from a week ago. It entered the 70s at the end of March and gradually rose, surpassing the 80s in May, but has not reached the baseline of 100. When the trading supply and demand index is between 0 and 100, it means that the selling force is stronger, and when it is between 100 and 200, the buying force is stronger.
Experts predict that there is no possibility of an interest rate cut for the time being, so there is no choice but to continue the sideways trend.
Senior Commissioner Kim said, “For trading volume to recover, an interest rate cut or a product that bypasses the debt service ratio (DSR) must be introduced again, but this year will not be easy. Trading volume will not fall as sharply as last year, but is expected to remain at a sideways level. “It is expected,” he said. “With all global interest rates rising this year, the policy was to freeze only domestic interest rates or lower additional interest rates, but there are limitations. In a situation where global interest rates continue to be maintained, interest rates cannot be lowered only in Korea.” He predicted that the current level will continue until the first half of next year.”
Senior Researcher Baek also said, “In fact, it seems difficult for interest rates to be lowered,” and added, “Unless some positive factor acts strongly, the price increase is expected to continue at a sideways level, so it is unlikely that there will be a dramatic increase in trading volume.”